关键词: 昆楚大高速铁路, 灰色预测模型, 旅游经济联系强度模型

Abstract: On July 1 , 2018 , the whole Kunming-Chuxiong-Dali high-speed railway was put into opera-tion，marking the opening of a fast track from central Yumnan to the western Yunnan，shortening the dis-tance between regions along the line.Cities along the railway have unique tourism resources，att ractingmore and more tourists.Firstly , the paper uses the data when there is no high-speed railway，constructsa grey prediction model GM (1，1) to predict the expected tourism economic data，compares it with thereal tourism economic data of the high-speed railway，and analy zes the changes of tourism economic dataof the cities along the line after the opening of Kunming-Chuxiong-Dali high-speed railway and then theurban tourism economic connection strength model is used to calculate the tourism economic connectionstrength between the cities along the line before and after the opening of Kunming-Chuxiong-Dali high-speed railway. Finally，a comparative analysis is canied out to illustrate the impact of the opening ofKunming-Chuxiong-Dali high-speed railway on the tourism economy of Kunming，Chuxiong anml Dali.From the conclusion of the model，it can be seen that the opening of Kurming-Chuxiong-Dali high-speedrailway has a greater impact on the tourism of Chuxiong than that of Kunming and Dali ， but it genemally enhances the tourism economic connection strength of the cities along the line.

Key words: Ｋｕｎｍｉｎｇ-Ｃｈｕｘｉｏｎｇ-Ｄａｌｉ ｈｉｇｈ-ｓｐｅｅｄ ｒａｉｌｗａｙ, ｇｒｅｙ ｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ ｍｏｄｅｌ, ｔｏｕｒｉｓｍ ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃ ｃｏｎｎｅｃｔｉｏｎ ｓｔｒｅｎｇｔｈ ｍｏｄｅｌ