关键词: 土地利用, 碳储量, ＰＬＵＳ模型, ＩｎＶＥＳＴ模型, 安宁市

Abstract: As an important intersection of industry and ecology in Yunnan Province, Anning City is typi-cal and representative in terms of its land use change characteristics and their impacts on carbon storage.This study couples the PLUS (Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation) and InVEST (Integrated Valuationof Ecosystem Sertices and Trade-offs) models. Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020, it systemati-cally analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution laws of land use and carbon storage in Anning City. Under theconstraints of territorial spatial planning, the study simulates land use patterns for 2030 under three sce-narios; natural development, ecological protection, and urban development, and estimates the corre-sponding ecosystem carbon storage. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the expansion ofconstruction land led to the continuous reduction in cropland and grassland areas, resulting in an overalldecrease of 7. 35% in regional carbon storage; the level of carbon storage was correlated with the intensi-ty of land use changes. (2) Multi-scenario simulations reveal that by 2030, carbon storage will continueto decrease under both the natural development and urban development scenarios, while a slight increasein carbon storage is expected under the ecological protection scenario, making it the only model with posi-tive growth.

Key words: land use, carbon storage, PLUS model, InVEST model, Anning City