关键词: 投资风险, 装配式建筑, 区间层次分析法, 集对分析, 风险评价

Abstract:

In order to realize the dynamic analysis and management of prefabricated building investment risk, the risk evaluation index system of prefabricated building investment is constructed from 5 aspects, including policy, market, technology, economy, management and 15 secondary indexes; the weight of each index factor of investment risk is calculated by using interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and five‑element correlation number to analyze the expert scores; the set pair analysis method is applied to the prefabricated building, the full partial correlation coefficients at each level are calculated. A similarity‑dissimilarity‑inverse evaluation model that conforms to the evaluation index system is constructed, and the prefabricated building project in A district of Kunming City, Yunnan Province is taken as an example for research. The results show that the overall construction risk of the project is at the level of balance 82, which belongs to the general risk level, consistent with the actual investigation. It concludes that the constructed prefabricated building investment risk assessment model is reliable, and can provide certain reference value for investors to make investment.

Key words:  investment risk, prefabricated building, interval analytic hierarchy process, set?pair analysis, risk assessment